Black Friday, Tariffs, and Why Q4 Stock Planning Just Got Urgent
More updates from the Trump Administration
A couple of weeks ago we wrote about the end of the de minimis exemption and what it means for UK and EU brands shipping into the U.S. The takeaway was clear: the economics of cross-border DTC just changed overnight. Now, another layer has been added - and it’s timed to land right in the middle of peak season.
On July 30th, the White House signed an executive order that would have pushed tariffs on Chinese imports to new highs. That move has now been delayed, but only until November 10th. In other words, if you’re importing from China into the U.S., the tariff hike will arrive just as Black Friday campaigns go live.
This isn’t a reprieve. It’s a countdown clock.
Why the Date Matters
Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the holiday period are when many brands make their year. For some, November and December can account for 30-40% of annual revenue. If you’re planning to bring in Q4 stock from China in late October or November, you’re gambling on clearance times, port congestion, and the possibility that your shipment will land after November 10th.
If it does, you could be looking at tariff increases of up to 145% on affected products. That’s not an inconvenience. That’s a margin killer.
Import Early, Sleep Better
The simplest way to de-risk this is to move Q4 shipments forward. Get them landed in the U.S. before November. Yes, that may mean carrying more inventory than you’re used to. Yes, it means tying up more working capital for longer. But the cost of financing a few extra weeks of stock is a fraction of what a tariff hike could strip from your bottom line.
And don’t stop at Q4. For predictable sellers or evergreen SKUs, consider bringing in part of your Q1 volume too. Chinese New Year in late January will already compress Q1 supply chains; layering in new tariffs will only make replenishment harder.
Run the Scenarios
This isn’t guesswork. Model it. Take your landed cost today, add the proposed tariff percentage, and run it against your current retail price. Then calculate the extra cost per unit for a November 11th arrival versus an October 20th arrival.
You’ll quickly see the trade-off. In many cases, the “safe” option of early import wins hands down.
Fulfilment Choices Matter More Than Ever
If the de minimis changes have already nudged you towards a U.S. 3PL or warehouse, you’re in a stronger position. You can import at cost price, pay duties accordingly, and hold inventory ready for domestic fulfilment. If you’re still shipping direct-to-consumer from overseas, this is another reason to reconsider.
Bulk importing into the U.S. ahead of November 10th means you can sidestep both the de minimis repeal impact and the China tariff spike in one move. It also means faster delivery times and easier returns in the run-up to Christmas, which can have as much impact on conversion as pricing does.
Port Congestion, Capacity, and the Domino Effect
The logic of “import early” is only half the story. You’ll be competing for space with every other brand, retailer, and importer who sees the same deadline approaching. Freight rates tend to spike ahead of peak season anyway; this year, expect that curve to start earlier and climb faster.
Talk to your freight partners now. Book space if you can. Confirm lead times with your suppliers and factor in buffers. The cost of arriving early is negligible compared to the cost of missing the window entirely.
Customer Messaging: Know Your Audience
How you communicate around tariffs depends on who you’re selling to. Some U.S. consumers see tariffs as a protective measure for domestic manufacturing and may not respond well to messaging framed as “tariffs are bad.” Others may be motivated to buy before a price increase. The point is to understand your customer base and decide whether to make tariffs part of your campaign narrative or keep the mechanics behind the scenes.
The Bigger Picture
The de minimis repeal and the looming China tariff increase are separate policy moves, but they’re converging to create a perfect storm for cross-border commerce. Brands that can move quickly to adjust inventory flows, lock in freight space, and secure local fulfilment will navigate Q4 with far less disruption.
The brands that wait to see what happens will face higher costs, delayed shipments, and a scramble to adjust pricing during the busiest sales period of the year.
Black Friday is about momentum. You don’t want yours stalled at a port, sitting in customs, or caught in a sudden 145% duty increase. The clock is ticking, and the smart money is on acting before it runs out.